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Gold prices fall: Have gold ETFs turned more attractive than sovereign gold bonds?

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Gold ETFs turn attractive: The recent reduction in customs duty on gold, coupled with long-term tax benefits announced in the budget, has made gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and gold funds an attractive investment option for many. Additionally, the expected discontinuation of new issuances of sovereign gold bonds (SGB) is further driving investors towards these investment vehicles.
According to an ET report, financial experts recommend that investors should allocate at least 10% of their portfolio to gold. They suggest that the current dip in gold prices offers a favorable opportunity for those who have not yet invested in gold to consider adding it to their portfolio.
The recent reduction in customs duty on gold has led to a 6% drop in domestic gold prices, bringing the cost down to Rs 69,100 per 10 grams.

Gold ETFs & Returns

Gold ETFs & Returns

In addition to the price drop, the recent budget announcement has also made gold more tax-efficient in the long run. The long-term tax incidence on gold has been changed from the investor’s tax slab to a flat 12.5% after a holding period of two years.
Chirag Mehta, chief investment officer at Quantum Mutual Fund, was quoted as saying, “This is a significant advantage from a tax perspective and should stand at an advantage for investors in addition to other benefits that Gold ETFs provide.”
Previously, wealth managers preferred sovereign gold bonds due to the additional 2.5% annual interest paid by the government, the absence of an expense ratio, and tax-free capital gains upon maturity.
Also Read | These mutual funds have returned 100% more than Nifty! Where should investors put their SIP money?
However, with the last primary issue of sovereign gold bonds in March 2024 and no announcement of fresh issues this year, coupled with the existing series trading at a 10-12% premium in secondary markets, investors looking to add gold to their portfolios may be better off buying gold ETFs or gold mutual funds, according to Nikhil Gupta, founder of Sage Capital.
Gold is considered a valuable asset in a portfolio due to its ability to diversify and act as a hedge against inflation. Analysts recommend holding 5-10% of one’s portfolio in gold.
Tapan Patel, fund manager at Tata Asset Management, believes that market uncertainty surrounding the US elections and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance may drive inflows into gold funds, especially in a rate cut scenario. Additionally, strong economic stimulus from China may boost investment demand for gold.





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US jobless claims fall to lowest since May in solid labor market

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Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since May, indicating the job market remains healthy despite a slowdown in hiring.
Initial claims decreased by 12,000 to 219,000 in the week ended September 14, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The period also corresponds with the so-called reference week when the survey is conducted for the September employment report.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, also dropped in the previous week, to the lowest in three months.
The four-week moving average, a metric that helps smooth out volatility in the data, fell to 227,500, the lowest since June.
What Bloomberg economics says…
“Initial jobless claims declined more than expected in the survey week for September’s employment report, due in part to difficulty adjusting the data around a major holiday like Labor Day. Claims tend to be depressed in holiday-shortened weeks, then rebound the following week — so the current data have limited value as a guide to September’s payroll print,” said Eliza Winger.
Claims for unemployment benefits have remained subdued in recent months even as labor demand cooled. The US central bank’s decision to lower interest rates by a half percentage point this week reflected policymakers’ intention to maintain what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described as “still a solid” labor market.
“We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation,” Powell said during a press conference Wednesday following the rate-cut announcement.
Initial claims, before adjustment for seasonal factors, rose by 6,436 to 184,845. Texas, New York and California saw the largest increases. Applications in Massachusetts fell by the most since the end of April.





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Stock market today: BSE Sensex hits fresh lifetime high, goes above 83,600; Nifty50 above 25,550

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Stock market today: BSE Sensex and Nifty50, the Indian equity benchmark indices, surged in trade on Friday to hit lifetime highs following a more than expected 50 basis points rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. While BSE Sensex climbed above 83,600, Nifty50 was above 25,550. At 9:20 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 83,636.77, up 689 points or 0.83%. Nifty50 was at 25,571.70, up 194 points or 0.77%.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal, says, “A 25bps rate cut is already discounted and can lead to profit booking in the market.However, a 50bps rate cut by the Fed could bring some cheer to market sentiments. Also, Fed commentary will be important as it will give clarity on the quantum and duration of the rate cut cycle. We expect the market to remain volatile in the near term with rate-sensitive sectors in focus.”
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities noted that the short-term trend of Nifty remains positive with range-bound action, and any dips to the support levels of 25,200-25,100 could present a buying opportunity. A decisive move above 25,500 levels might propel Nifty towards higher targets.
In the global markets, U.S. stocks closed with modest losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations. The S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while Japan’s Topix gained 2%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures also climbed 0.7%.
In the forex market, the euro, Japanese yen, and offshore yuan experienced slight declines against the US dollar. Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday following the larger-than-expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which raised concerns about the U.S. economy.
Several stocks are in the F&O ban period today, including Balrampur Chini Mills, Hindustan Copper, GNFC, RBL Bank, PNB, Bandhan Bank, Biocon, Birlasoft, LIC Housing Finance, and Granules. Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers with Rs 1154 crore, while domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 152 crore. The net long position of FIIs increased from Rs 2.2 lakh crore on Tuesday to Rs 2.37 lakh crore on Wednesday.





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US stocks dip despite larger Fed interest rate cut

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On Wednesday, Wall Street stocks experienced a slight decline following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a half-percentage-point interest rate cut. The central bank’s chair, Jerome Powell, assured a “careful” approach to lowering rates, acknowledging the progress made in combating inflation in the United States.
The Federal Reserve’s decision was supported by an 11-to-1 vote in favor of reducing the benchmark rate to a range between 4.75 percent and 5.00 percent.The larger-than-expected rate cut surprised some analysts who had anticipated a quarter-point decrease. Additionally, policymakers projected an extra half-point of cuts by the end of this year and a further percentage point of cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, major US stock indices fluctuated between positive and negative territory following the Fed’s decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 103.08 points, or 0.25%, to 41,503.10, the S&P 500 lost 16.32 points, or 0.29%, to 5,618.26 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 54.76 points, or 0.31%, to 17,573.30. Briefing.com noted that the Fed’s decision would be met “with both elation and criticism,” as the larger rate cut could appease those who believe the Fed is lagging in preventing a hard landing. However, it may also face criticism from those who think the more aggressive rate cut was unwarranted given broader economic trends, with concerns that it could reignite inflation.
During a news conference, Powell described the US economy as being in “good shape,” highlighting lower inflation and robust growth. He emphasized the Fed’s desire to maintain a strong labor market. The decision to implement a larger rate cut was based on various economic data points, leading policymakers to conclude that monetary decisions had been “appropriately restrictive” and that a “more neutral” approach was now necessary. Powell signaled that investors should expect more interest rate cuts in the future but cautioned that the central bank would proceed carefully and evaluate the matter “meeting by meeting.”
In Europe, stock markets in Paris and London closed lower, while Frankfurt ended the day flat. The dollar initially experienced a significant drop against the euro and other currencies but later recovered. The Fed now anticipates only a half-percentage point of cuts remaining in 2024, which is lower than the three-quarter percentage point that traders had been expecting. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming announcement by the Bank of England on Thursday. The central bank is expected to maintain its current stance following a regular meeting, as official data released on Wednesday showed that British annual inflation remained at 2.2 percent in August.
(With inputs from agencies)





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