Business
JPMorgan abandons its recommendation to buy China stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co abandoned its buy recommendation for Chinese stocks, citing heightened volatility around the upcoming US elections in addition to growth headwinds and tepid policy support.
China was downgraded to neutral from overweight in the bank’s emerging markets allocation, strategists led by Pedro Martins wrote in a note Wednesday. The potential for another trade war between Washington and Beijing could weigh on shares, while China’s moves to lift itself out of its economic slump remain “underwhelming,” they said.
“The impact of a potential ‘Tariff War 2.0’ (with tariffs increasing from 20% to 60%) could be more significant than the first tariff war,” the analysts wrote.“We expect China’s long-term growth to trend down structurally due to supply-chain relocation, the expansion of US-China conflicts, and continued domestic issues,” they added.
JPMorgan joins a growing chorus of global firms downgrading their expectations for China’s stock market, following similar moves by former China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management and Nomura Holdings Inc. in the last few weeks. It signals exclusion of China is becoming a popular strategy for investors and analysts amid the country’s dimming prospects and the likelihood of better returns elsewhere.
Economists increasingly think China will miss its growth target of around 5% this year — and many equity analysts are now pointing their clients elsewhere.
The JPMorgan strategists suggested investors use the money freed up by downgrading China to raise exposure to the markets the US bank is already overweight on: India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia. They also noted challenges in managing the high weight of China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and the growth of EM ex-China mandates.
New EM equity funds that exclude China are sprouting up, and have already matched the annual record of new launches of 19 set last year as investors seek better returns outside of the country. Meanwhile, the outperformance of India and Taiwan puts the weight for each of them only a few percentage points away in replacing China’s top spot in EM equity portfolios.
In a separate note written by strategists including JPMorgan chief Asia and China equity strategist Wendy Liu, the bank cut its end-2024 base target for the MSCI China Index to 60 from 66, and for the CSI300 Index to 3,500 from 3,900. Those predictions are still above where the two indexes are currently trading.
The vast majority of global banks now expect China’s economy to grow less than 5% this year, with Bank of America Corp. the latest to slash its forecast. JPMorgan’s Haibin Zhu has also cut China’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%.
“We think the market may trade on the weak side during Sept-Oct after Q2 results,” Liu wrote. “During this time, the US presidential election, the Fed’s rate decisions, and the US growth outlook will be front and center.”
JPMorgan also raised the cash level in its China equity model portfolio to 7.7% from 1%, according to a report.
China was downgraded to neutral from overweight in the bank’s emerging markets allocation, strategists led by Pedro Martins wrote in a note Wednesday. The potential for another trade war between Washington and Beijing could weigh on shares, while China’s moves to lift itself out of its economic slump remain “underwhelming,” they said.
“The impact of a potential ‘Tariff War 2.0’ (with tariffs increasing from 20% to 60%) could be more significant than the first tariff war,” the analysts wrote.“We expect China’s long-term growth to trend down structurally due to supply-chain relocation, the expansion of US-China conflicts, and continued domestic issues,” they added.
JPMorgan joins a growing chorus of global firms downgrading their expectations for China’s stock market, following similar moves by former China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management and Nomura Holdings Inc. in the last few weeks. It signals exclusion of China is becoming a popular strategy for investors and analysts amid the country’s dimming prospects and the likelihood of better returns elsewhere.
Economists increasingly think China will miss its growth target of around 5% this year — and many equity analysts are now pointing their clients elsewhere.
The JPMorgan strategists suggested investors use the money freed up by downgrading China to raise exposure to the markets the US bank is already overweight on: India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia. They also noted challenges in managing the high weight of China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and the growth of EM ex-China mandates.
New EM equity funds that exclude China are sprouting up, and have already matched the annual record of new launches of 19 set last year as investors seek better returns outside of the country. Meanwhile, the outperformance of India and Taiwan puts the weight for each of them only a few percentage points away in replacing China’s top spot in EM equity portfolios.
In a separate note written by strategists including JPMorgan chief Asia and China equity strategist Wendy Liu, the bank cut its end-2024 base target for the MSCI China Index to 60 from 66, and for the CSI300 Index to 3,500 from 3,900. Those predictions are still above where the two indexes are currently trading.
The vast majority of global banks now expect China’s economy to grow less than 5% this year, with Bank of America Corp. the latest to slash its forecast. JPMorgan’s Haibin Zhu has also cut China’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%.
“We think the market may trade on the weak side during Sept-Oct after Q2 results,” Liu wrote. “During this time, the US presidential election, the Fed’s rate decisions, and the US growth outlook will be front and center.”
JPMorgan also raised the cash level in its China equity model portfolio to 7.7% from 1%, according to a report.
NEW DELHI: Indian refiners can leverage their combined consumption to seek better terms for next year’s annual contracts with suppliers, especially Russia, as a gloomy demand outlook subdues oil prices, a senior petroleum ministry official said on Thursday.
“We have seen IEA (International Energy Agency) and all such agencies lowering demand outlook in recent times.But India has emerged as a major (demand) growth centre,” he said, alluding to the growing size of India’s consumption — pegged at about 5 million barrels/day — offers a substantial market for suppliers in a tepid market.
On joint negotiations by the refiners with Russia, the official said “talks” among them “are ongoing”. Indian refiners sign annual contracts with major suppliers for part of their requirement and meet the rest through spot purchase.
The focus on Russia stems from the fact that it has become India’s top oil supplier because of discounts offered in the wake of Western sanctions and a $60 per barrel price cap, imposed after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, curbed markets for the Russian barrels. State-run refiners mostly buy Russian oil through spot tenders.
A similar attempt by state-run refiners to secure better terms from the Middle-East suppliers about 15 years back had come a cropper.
But the official said a contract is more than the price, which follows benchmarks. “For example, one can seek discounts, longer payment credit period, destination flexibility (allowing diversion cargo to another port in India) and other terms,” he said.
Both OPEC, accounting for 40% of globally traded oil, and the IEA have in recent times pruned their 2024 demand growth forecast. In contrast, IEA’s oil market report on India has said the country will contribute a third of the global oil consumption growth through 2030 to overtake China.
For the first time in two years, benchmark Brent crude dropped below $70 per barrel last week as fear of oversupply grew amid poor show by the major economies, especially China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer. On Thursday, however, Brent rebounded to hover just below $75, buoyed by the US interest cut.
“We have seen IEA (International Energy Agency) and all such agencies lowering demand outlook in recent times.But India has emerged as a major (demand) growth centre,” he said, alluding to the growing size of India’s consumption — pegged at about 5 million barrels/day — offers a substantial market for suppliers in a tepid market.
On joint negotiations by the refiners with Russia, the official said “talks” among them “are ongoing”. Indian refiners sign annual contracts with major suppliers for part of their requirement and meet the rest through spot purchase.
The focus on Russia stems from the fact that it has become India’s top oil supplier because of discounts offered in the wake of Western sanctions and a $60 per barrel price cap, imposed after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, curbed markets for the Russian barrels. State-run refiners mostly buy Russian oil through spot tenders.
A similar attempt by state-run refiners to secure better terms from the Middle-East suppliers about 15 years back had come a cropper.
But the official said a contract is more than the price, which follows benchmarks. “For example, one can seek discounts, longer payment credit period, destination flexibility (allowing diversion cargo to another port in India) and other terms,” he said.
Both OPEC, accounting for 40% of globally traded oil, and the IEA have in recent times pruned their 2024 demand growth forecast. In contrast, IEA’s oil market report on India has said the country will contribute a third of the global oil consumption growth through 2030 to overtake China.
For the first time in two years, benchmark Brent crude dropped below $70 per barrel last week as fear of oversupply grew amid poor show by the major economies, especially China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer. On Thursday, however, Brent rebounded to hover just below $75, buoyed by the US interest cut.
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since May, indicating the job market remains healthy despite a slowdown in hiring.
Initial claims decreased by 12,000 to 219,000 in the week ended September 14, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The period also corresponds with the so-called reference week when the survey is conducted for the September employment report.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, also dropped in the previous week, to the lowest in three months.
The four-week moving average, a metric that helps smooth out volatility in the data, fell to 227,500, the lowest since June.
What Bloomberg economics says…
“Initial jobless claims declined more than expected in the survey week for September’s employment report, due in part to difficulty adjusting the data around a major holiday like Labor Day. Claims tend to be depressed in holiday-shortened weeks, then rebound the following week — so the current data have limited value as a guide to September’s payroll print,” said Eliza Winger.
Claims for unemployment benefits have remained subdued in recent months even as labor demand cooled. The US central bank’s decision to lower interest rates by a half percentage point this week reflected policymakers’ intention to maintain what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described as “still a solid” labor market.
“We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation,” Powell said during a press conference Wednesday following the rate-cut announcement.
Initial claims, before adjustment for seasonal factors, rose by 6,436 to 184,845. Texas, New York and California saw the largest increases. Applications in Massachusetts fell by the most since the end of April.
Initial claims decreased by 12,000 to 219,000 in the week ended September 14, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The period also corresponds with the so-called reference week when the survey is conducted for the September employment report.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, also dropped in the previous week, to the lowest in three months.
The four-week moving average, a metric that helps smooth out volatility in the data, fell to 227,500, the lowest since June.
What Bloomberg economics says…
“Initial jobless claims declined more than expected in the survey week for September’s employment report, due in part to difficulty adjusting the data around a major holiday like Labor Day. Claims tend to be depressed in holiday-shortened weeks, then rebound the following week — so the current data have limited value as a guide to September’s payroll print,” said Eliza Winger.
Claims for unemployment benefits have remained subdued in recent months even as labor demand cooled. The US central bank’s decision to lower interest rates by a half percentage point this week reflected policymakers’ intention to maintain what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described as “still a solid” labor market.
“We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation,” Powell said during a press conference Wednesday following the rate-cut announcement.
Initial claims, before adjustment for seasonal factors, rose by 6,436 to 184,845. Texas, New York and California saw the largest increases. Applications in Massachusetts fell by the most since the end of April.
Business
Stock market today: BSE Sensex hits fresh lifetime high, goes above 83,600; Nifty50 above 25,550
Stock market today: BSE Sensex and Nifty50, the Indian equity benchmark indices, surged in trade on Friday to hit lifetime highs following a more than expected 50 basis points rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. While BSE Sensex climbed above 83,600, Nifty50 was above 25,550. At 9:20 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 83,636.77, up 689 points or 0.83%. Nifty50 was at 25,571.70, up 194 points or 0.77%.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal, says, “A 25bps rate cut is already discounted and can lead to profit booking in the market.However, a 50bps rate cut by the Fed could bring some cheer to market sentiments. Also, Fed commentary will be important as it will give clarity on the quantum and duration of the rate cut cycle. We expect the market to remain volatile in the near term with rate-sensitive sectors in focus.”
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities noted that the short-term trend of Nifty remains positive with range-bound action, and any dips to the support levels of 25,200-25,100 could present a buying opportunity. A decisive move above 25,500 levels might propel Nifty towards higher targets.
In the global markets, U.S. stocks closed with modest losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations. The S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while Japan’s Topix gained 2%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures also climbed 0.7%.
In the forex market, the euro, Japanese yen, and offshore yuan experienced slight declines against the US dollar. Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday following the larger-than-expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which raised concerns about the U.S. economy.
Several stocks are in the F&O ban period today, including Balrampur Chini Mills, Hindustan Copper, GNFC, RBL Bank, PNB, Bandhan Bank, Biocon, Birlasoft, LIC Housing Finance, and Granules. Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers with Rs 1154 crore, while domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 152 crore. The net long position of FIIs increased from Rs 2.2 lakh crore on Tuesday to Rs 2.37 lakh crore on Wednesday.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal, says, “A 25bps rate cut is already discounted and can lead to profit booking in the market.However, a 50bps rate cut by the Fed could bring some cheer to market sentiments. Also, Fed commentary will be important as it will give clarity on the quantum and duration of the rate cut cycle. We expect the market to remain volatile in the near term with rate-sensitive sectors in focus.”
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities noted that the short-term trend of Nifty remains positive with range-bound action, and any dips to the support levels of 25,200-25,100 could present a buying opportunity. A decisive move above 25,500 levels might propel Nifty towards higher targets.
In the global markets, U.S. stocks closed with modest losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations. The S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while Japan’s Topix gained 2%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures also climbed 0.7%.
In the forex market, the euro, Japanese yen, and offshore yuan experienced slight declines against the US dollar. Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday following the larger-than-expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which raised concerns about the U.S. economy.
Several stocks are in the F&O ban period today, including Balrampur Chini Mills, Hindustan Copper, GNFC, RBL Bank, PNB, Bandhan Bank, Biocon, Birlasoft, LIC Housing Finance, and Granules. Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers with Rs 1154 crore, while domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 152 crore. The net long position of FIIs increased from Rs 2.2 lakh crore on Tuesday to Rs 2.37 lakh crore on Wednesday.
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